Narratives of the week : October 11
$SUI still leading, Murad effect onchain ($SPX), $EIGEN launch
Welcome to this weekly recap, I am Viktor and you can find me here on Twitter and here on Telegram. Enjoy your reading !
$BTC and the market overall
$BTC was at $64K when I wrote the previous edition of this newsletter on the last day of September. It dumped on the first day of October to $60k, where it put a sort of ‘triple tap’ low timeframe bottom, then pumped to $64K, but then it dumped again yesterday. It kissed $59K but has been up only since then, and currently stands above $62K.
Altcoins bottomed on October 3 and have not made a lower low yesterday, only a higher low, which really confirms the fact that we are not in the same regime as the March-August one.
The bullish case right now is that CT will try to frontrun a Trump victory at the elections, which would mean that we keep trending up until the elections. It’s also very possible that we just keep chopping like we’ve been doing for 2 months. My spot bags are packed, but on low timeframes, the market is currently very hard to read in my opinion.
Strong coins remain strong (SUI!)
The whole altcoin market had a sharp correction on October 1st, but the coins that have been the strongest since then tend to remain the ones that have been leading since the bottom, ie $SUI (this has definitely become the altcoin market leader), $TAO, $SAGA, $FTM, $SUPER (SUPER is very overlooked but consistently outperforms, it’s quite impressive).
$SUI has been able to get back to its previous ATH at $2.16, and is now close to $2 again despite having had a correction in between. $APT has been a good catch-up trade to $SUI, with an almost +25% move vs altcoins, but right now, the pair SUI/APT is close to ATH again.
On the VC coin front, we’ve also had a pump by $WLD which is going to host a “live update with Alex Blania and Sam Altman” on October 17. Clear catalyst, it will probably outperform until then and then dump.
$EIGEN token launched
EigenLayer finally launched their $EIGEN token. The coin seems to have printed the usual airdrop pattern, with an initial dump and then bottoming. At $6bn FDV right now, this feels somewhat cheap compared to other VC coins. If you remember back in early 2024, people were expecting a $20bn-$30bn FDV for that coin, and that would probably have happened if it had launched at this time.
Murad effect : $SPX, $POPCAT, $GIGA
Maybe the most important narrative of the last 10 days has been the Murad effect. Murad is an investor (fund manager ?) that has been pushing the memecoin supercycle narrative a lot, while focusing on a small selection of memecoins that he’s constantly bullposting.
The 3 main ones have been : $POPCAT, $GIGA, and $SPX. He only started bullposting $SPX recently but it was the perfect catalyst for this coin since it had a tremendous effect on the price : it went from $10M mcap to more than $600M this week. In the same time, Murad recently gave a talk at Token2049 where he explains his memecoin thesis.
This means that a very reflexive loop has begun where Murad’s favorite memecoins pumping implies that people get increasingly interested in his thesis, and then increasingly interested in buying his picks, which pushes the price up more, etc. This is why we’ve seen $GIGA pump from $200M to $500M mcap too.
$POPCAT is one of the rare Murad picks that is available on CEXes, and it spent a considerable time consolidating at its previous ATH around $1bn market cap, but then pumped by +45% this week. It then had a -25% correction but does not look like it has topped.
On-chain mania
This whole Murad effect catalyzed a pretty strong on-chain mania, on both Solana and Ethereum. Few examples on Solana are : $SIGMA (a beta for $GIGA, $7M → $70M mcap), $USA ($5M → $35M), $MINI ($10M → $60M), $FWOG ($50M → 200M). On Ethereum, $APU went from $60M to $250M, $BITCOIN finally made a new ATH at $300M (it was at $70M a month before), and the coins that were hot during the same period as $SPX are also up a lot ($JOE, $KEKEC, $SMURFCAT, $MOG). On Base, there has been a 10x on $KEYCAT.
Basically all of the microcap memecoins on Solana that were not dead (active socials, etc) are up 5x-10x from their bottom. Buying memecoins that are a few months old, down a lot from their top, and consolidating seems to be a great strategy in terms of R/R. Of course, now that most memecoins are up a lot, you can’t really find such opportunities with ‘low risk’.
$NEIROs and cabal stuff
$NEIRO CTO also had a giant pump from $400M mcap to $800M in a few days, confirming the fact that it’s very dangerous to fade this cabal. Apparently it’s a chinese cabal behind it, and there was some FUD against it on Twitter recently, which also pushed the second $NEIRO (NEIROETH), which is up +50% today. It is 8x smaller than NEIROCTO, so some people have taken the mean reversion trade long NEIROETH / short NEIROCTO.
There has been another cabal move this week similar to what happened on Neiro initially by the way : Vitalik received some ETH $MOODENG, sold to give to charity, and then he made a tweet mentioning them, which sent the coin 3x, and at this moment it even flipped the main $MOODENG coin which is on Solana, but that has not lasted. Sol $MOODENG currently stands at $140M mcap, and has bottomed at $100M around the short-lived ‘flippening’.
Politifi coins
Another category of memecoins that pumped recently is the ‘PolitiFi coins’, as the Trump trade going into the elections. The main $TRUMP memecoin is up +180% from bottom, $MAGA is up +250%, $TREMP is up 3x too. In the same time, Polymarket odds for Trump have been going up to now 55%.
What else happened in the altcoin market ?
BTC memecoins have also been moving strongly in the past few days, $PUPS are up almost 10X in a month, $WZRD up 4x, and $DOG up 2x. Bonk guy has been shilling them a lot, he thinks they are a great r/r bet.
$AERO is another coin that has been going up consistently for a few weeks, it’s both the best proxy for Base and the main DEX competitor for Uniswap. $DEGEN has been added to the Coinbase listing roadmap, and it had a strong effect on the price which basically pumped by +150%.
Yesterday, Uniswap announced that they were going to launch Unichain as an L2 on Optimism's Superchain. The $UNI token had a good reaction and is up +10%
Chiliz holders are going to be airdropped a portion of the supply of $PEPPER, which is a new memecoin on the Chiliz chain. This probably explains the strong price action that $CHZ has had recently.
I am seeing more and more people being bullish on $SHFL (Shuffle, which is an online casino like Stakes or Rollbit), it is now up 3x from bottom and has broken out of a very long bottoming range.
Thank you for reading this article,
Cheers,
Viktor.