Narratives of the week : November 15
Trump victory, new $93K BTC ATH, $DOGE and memes pump, bull run vibes
Welcome to this weekly recap, I am Viktor and you can find me here on Twitter and here on Telegram. Enjoy your reading !
$BTC and the market overall
The election night started with $BTC right below $70k, and it basically spend the whole election night drifting up. The price of BTC simply followed the Trump odds on Polymarket, and they just never stopped going up until it was very obvious that Trump would win the elections. $BTC pumped from $70K to a new ATH of $75K in a few hours.
It then sold off below $73k, then pumped again and stalled around $76k for a few days. On November 10 and 11, $BTC had two monster daily green candles that brought it from $76k to almost $90k. And then on November 13, $BTC reached a new ATH above $93k, but has now stalled since then.
My opinion (which is also the consensus) is that the bull run just started, ie we are in the same situation as in December 2020, and we are now going to have a few very bullish months, with altcoins going completely crazy once BTC dominance will top. The ETF flows have been absolutely massive since the Trump victory. According to Polymarket, $BTC does have 60% chance of reaching $100k before the end of year.
BTC.D had a first local top at almost 60% right before the election night, but then it went down as ETH and altcoins performed well vs BTC until November 10. ETHBTC went from 0.035 to 0.041 but then sold off completely again to 0.034 at the moment. There was some hope about a new ‘ETH 3.0’ narrative but after Justin Drake delivered his speech at Devcon showing the roadmap of ETH with a 2029 time goal, it reminded everyone that Ethereum was sooo slow at pushing updates. There is a bit of hope on the ETF front though, as we are finally seeing some signs of decent inflows for the $ETH ETF.
Strangely, if we completely exclude the memecoins, the strongest category since the Trump victory has been… some dino coins loved by retail :
$XRP is up +70% in 10 days and approaches the $1 mark again. As $XRP has been heavily attacked by the SEC under Gensler, it makes sense that $XRP pumps after the Trump victory. I did expect it to go so high so quick though. The chart is absolutely beautiful and I understand the bullish case, but the r/r for a long looks bad when you take the market cap and FDV into account imo. Retail LOVES XRP though.
$ADA is also up 2x in 10 days. It is also a very retail heavy coin. There are rumors about Charles Hoskinson being an advisor for the Trump government, which acted as a good catalyst for $ADA.
$HBAR is up +50%. Another dino coin that retail likes but crypto natives do not like.
$CRO was up 3x from bottom to top at some point. CRO is the token of the Crypto.com exchange, and it is usually pumped by retail.
Even $LTC has been looking strong, and they hired a completely unhinged intern to handle the Litecoin Twitter account, which is bullish for attention.
$DOGE market cap up $30bn in a week
The main Trump trade in the market has been $DOGE before the elections, it went up +30% in 10 days, and then again +30% on the election night alongside $BTC. It then cooled off for a day before ripping almost 2x in 2 days after the election, to around $0.42.
On November 13, Trump officially announced that Elon Musk and Vivek would lead the D.O.G.E. (Department of Government Efficiency). That announcement lead to an initial +10% reaction, but we are now below the pre-announcement price. It makes sense that DOGE needs some time to consolidate after the monster pump it had over a month. I expect DOGE to keep going higher, as we are going to hear about the D.O.G.E. for months.
There is an on-chain $D.O.G.E. coin too that has gone up tremendously in the last weeks, from $10M mcap post Trump victory to now $300M after a top at $500M.
One of the tokens that also benefitted from the $DOGE effect has been $BONK, which is another dog coin obviously, and listed on Coinbase. It is up +80% in a week.
$PEPE and $WIF listed on Coinbase
All the major memecoins benefitted from the DOGE pump (as catch-up trades) but this got particularly intensified on November 13 with the $PEPE listing on Robinhood US. A few hours later, it is Coinbase that announced the listing of $PEPE too, which lead to a +50% pump in a day on $PEPE.
And then about 2 hours after, Coinbase also announced the listing of $WIF, and that pumped $WIF by +30% but it got rapidly retraced, whereas $PEPE is still looking strong. Maybe it is because people have seen that $PEPE does have around 10X more volume on Coinbase than $WIF at the moment. I think that $PEPE is much more likely to reach stupid valuations like $30bn compared to $WIF.
The hot CEX memecoins
Besides the major memecoins (DOGE, PEPE, WIF, BONK), another category that has performed very well since the Trump victory has been what I call the ‘memecoin trifecta’ : $NEIRO, $GOAT, and $MOODENG. These are 3 memecoins that have been listed recently on CEXes and that have gotten a lot of attention. I don’t particularly like each of them individually, but as I’ve written in a tweet, you just have to go with the flow in current conditions, and you can’t overthink it :
The momentum for the memecoin trifecta has been temporarily killed on November 11 when Binance surprisingly decided to list $ACT and $PNUT. At the time, $PNUT was worth $120M, and $ACT below $20M. In a few minutes, they were both at more than $400M mcap. The $ACT listing was particularly random, as $ACT was a very small AI memecoin that most people had forgotten since its top. This is so shady for Binance to do that…
Then a few days later, Binance listed $HIPPO, which is the ‘Moodeng on Sui’ coin… Another criminal listing in my opinion, given the fact that there was already an established $MOODENG coin. $MOODENG naturally took a hit on that news, it went down -10% but this marked the bottom and it managed to pump +150% from that bottom to its top.
Even after its listing, $ACT pumped 2x to $900M mcap, and even flipped $GOAT for some time. Right now, I don’t think that the r/r for $ACT is particularly attractive. $GOAT reached $1bn mcap and is consolidating around this level, like what $POPCAT did before it pumped to $1.8bn recently.
$PNUT to $2.4bn
Peanut has been mentioned by Elon in a tweet a few days ago and it propelled $PNUT from $400M to $2.4bn market cap at the top, which is very very impressive. I would never have expected that coin to go this high.
Today Elon made a new tweet about Peanut, and it lead to a pump that was very rapidly retraced, so at $2bn, I think this coin is not a good r/r long at all. At the very least, I would expect it to consolidate for a while.
$FRED is another Solana memecoin referring to the raccoon equivalent of Peanut, and it also went crazy, from $15M mcap to $300M following $PNUT price moves. Another animal that had a strong pump on-chain is $SHRUB, the hedgehog of Elon, it pumped from $5M to $200M in 10 days.
AI memes repricing
Most of the AI memes got repriced significantly higher after the $ACT listing :
$AI16Z reached $280M mcap
$FARTCOIN reached $280M
$SHOGGOTH reached $180M
$ZEREBRO reached $160M
$MEMESAI reached $80M
$FOREST reached $70M
$OMEGA reached $50M
$CHAOS reached $45M
The two AI memecoins I like the most besides $GOAT (that I have long on CEX based on the fact that it was high beta and a hot coin) are $E/ACC and $OMEGA.
Some other on-chain runners
The trenches have been very hot overall, despite the fact that there was a lot of action on CEXes. This is good evidence that we are in a bull run, where several things can pump to high valuations simultaneously. $FWOG which is the largest frog coin on Solana, reached a new ATH at $700M. Its chart is very good looking since it basically never dumps significantly. I would love to buy a strong dump on that coin if that happens. $LUCE is another Solana memecoin that went to $300M mcap, 10x higher than it was 2 weeks ago.
‘Bonk guy’ (unipcs) is a Twitter account that has become famous for longing $BONK with leverage in late 2023 and being able to reach a $10M+ uPnL without realizing it at all. He went heavy into onchain $D.O.G.E. and is now up 8 figures on it too. With $BONK pumping too, he has become one of the main characters again, and some of his bags pumped a lot as a result : $LMEOW and $QUBY for example. These are two Ethereum memecoins that look quite cheap when we compare them to some new Solana memecoins able to reach $100M+ mcap in a few days. I think $JOE and $KEKEC are two other ETH memecoins that are clearly undervalued on a relative basis too. Even ticker $BITCOIN at $230M seems quite cheap now.
Base season coming ?
$DEGEN has been extremely strong in the past week as it’s up more than +220%. It has been listed on Binance futures today, and has been available on Coinbase for a few weeks, which gives a strong premium to its price.
It seems to have kickstarted a Base season lately, with a few Base coins having very strong moves : $VIRTUALS up +70% in a few days (to $600M FDV), $BRETT up +85% in a week, $MIGGLES up 7x (to $140M), $KEYCAT up 5x (to $140M), $DOGINME up 6x, $SKI up 40x…
The idea is that Coinbase will push Base and so they might list small cap Base memecoins on the exchange, which will have a tremendous effect on their price.
What else happened in the altcoin market ?
The main shiny new coin on the CEXes has been $GRASS during a few days, it has been able to pump from $0.7 to $4 in ten days. It is considered as an AI coin and does have a lot of mindshare, so I would not be shocked to see it go much higher.
Most of the CEX coins that were hot from early September to mid October have been muted price-wise, except for $SUI that has been able to reach a new ATH at $3.5. That’s very impressive, especially given the fact that there is not much talk about $SUI anymore. I don’t like the R/R on $SUI for a long though, with a FDV worth a third of $100bn... $SAGA has been extremely weak and decoupled from the SUI strength since mid-October.
The next Nvidia earnings will come on November 20, and we usually see an outperformance of all the AI basket versus the market in the 2 weeks before that event. This has started to materialize with coins such as $NEAR, $RNDR, $GRASS, $IO.
Solana mid caps have been some of the best performers during a short period right after the Trump victory :
Most VC coins and especially the ones directly related to $ETH have been doomed in terms of price action, with coins such as $EIGEN, $TIA and $SCR being DOWN in USD since the post-election pump.
Thank you for reading this article,
Cheers,
Viktor.