Narratives of the week : June 4
$112k ATH on BTC then cool-off, $HYPE to $40, weak altcoin market
Welcome to this weekly recap, I am Viktor and you can find me here on Twitter and here on Telegram. Enjoy your reading !
Ref link shill : The sniper I use to trade coins on Solana is Axiom. Very useful, it’s night and day compared to trading on Jupiter. You can access Axiom in one click via this referral link.
$BTC and the market overall
$BTC reached a new ATH at $112k on May 22 but it got rejected several times at this level, and it ended up marking the local top. It then ranged for a few days around $108.5k, and now step lower, around $105k. It kind of looks like everyone got bullish when $BTC made a new high, but then the price came down and everyone is now trapped in longs.
After 6 weeks of up only and +50% gains with barely any drawdown, it’s not surprising to see $BTC finally cool down a bit. Altcoins have been suffering much more though, since they topped against $BTC in mid-May, and OTHERS/BTC just made new cycle lows on May 30.
I don’t have a strong opinion on altcoins as I tend to be bearish-biased on them, but I am quite constructive on $BTC. Two months ago, I wrote that the “Bitcoin for Corporations” narrative was likely to be the the next catalyst trades on BTC, and that’s exactly what we are seeing now.
The BTC Las Vegas took place in late May, and we recently had a lot of positive announcements in the BTC treasury world : Trump Media (DJT) announced a $2.5bn raise to buy $BTC, Gamestop (GME) bought $500M worth of $BTC, Strive is planning a $750M raise to buy $BTC, Metaplanet and The Blockchain Group are both gobbling up $BTC on a weekly basis, and Saylor has announced the launch of his 3rd preferred stock, $STRD.
To many people, this sounds like peak euphoria for the BTC treasury playbook, but to me, it’s just the beginning. I have written a few tweets to explain my opinion, and you can read them here :
This is why I am quite bullish on $BTC over the next few months, even if I have no strong conviction on where it will bottom locally. (And don’t forget that the summer seasonality is bearish).
And for once, we also had news on the ETF front, with a ‘MicroStrategy for ETH’ being launched : $SBET. It was a very small cap that got diluted 10x through a $425M raise, with the funds being deployed into ETH to make the company the largest ETH treasury company in the world. It is lead by Joe Lubin who is an Ethereum co-founder. The stock reacted extremely positively as it went up almost 20x at the top, and is still up 8x since the announcement. This means that the funds that have done the deal to get some $SBET shares are up 8x in paper profits, and that the mNAV of SBET is very high, while SBET being a giga low float stock (hence the explosive pump).
$HYPE to $40bn FDV
The strongest coin among large caps in May has been $HYPE, it’s been absolutely up only since its sub $10 bottom in early April, and went from $20 to $40 with basically no drawdown in 20 days. It’s definitely the project with the highest mindshare on CT, and it built a very strong cult-like community.
I can very well see it do a similar run as $SOL in 2023, and go to $100, but at the end of the day, this remains a perp DEX for me, so as you can value it based on its P/E ratio, I think this can create a ceiling on its valuation. I also think that $100bn FDV is an extremely strong ceiling for any coin, which means that you are looking at a 3x in an incredibly optimistic scenario. That being said, it remains one of the most investable token in the top 100, which makes it a no-brainer for a lot of people.
$TRUMP dinner and expected sell the news
Trump hosted its dinner for its 220 top memecoin holders on May 22. The $TRUMP coin pumped from $12.5 to $16 during the three days before the dinner in anticipation of it, and as expected, it sold off heavily once people realized there would not be any meaningful piece of news getting out of this event, so the coin went back down to $12.5 in two days.
Yesterday, the TRUMP memecoin team announced the upcoming launch of the Trump Wallet, which will be both a wallet and a trading app apparently, powered by Magic Eden.
There is probably an internal beef between the Trump sons, Eric and Donald Jr, and the TRUMP memecoin team (lead by Bill Zanker?) because the 2 sons tweeted that the Trump Organization was not involved at all with the Trump Wallet.
The reaction on the price action of the coin was not bullish, since it pumped +5% but then immediately retraced the whole move in a few hours. I am still short biased on this coin.
Cetus hack on Sui
On May 22, Cetus, the main DEX on Sui, has been hacked for $220M. It lead to a dump on all Sui ecosystem coins, but it took a surprisingly long time for $SUI to digest the news, more than 2 hours to lose -10% from top to the bottom of the wick.
It turned out that $180M out of the $220M have been frozen because SUI did not even try to larp as decentralized. 5 days later, Sui announced that all the losses from the hack would be covered, which lead to a short-lived pump on Cetus.
SUI has remained very weak against the market since the hack, and given the fact that it reached some pretty hefty valuation lately ($42bn FDV at the top again), and that it broke below its 50d MA, I would expect it to keep underperforming.
What else happened in the altcoin market ?
On May 28, Telegram announced a $1.5bn raise, and then announced that they would be integrating Grok (the AI available on Twitter) into Telegram. This lead to a +25% move up on $TON in just a few hours but then marked a local top.
On May 21, Worldcoin announced that they raised $135M from a16z and Bain Capital Crypto, and that the funding was (surprisingly!) through a recent direct purchase of liquid, market-priced $WLD. This lead to an insta pump and dump of 10%, but then the coin ran again for a day, to as high as +40%.
The strongest memecoin over the past 2 weeks has been $SPX, it went from $0.75 to as high as $1.2. Murad has now become active on TikTok, where he’s trying to converting the masses to join his SPX cult. I think we’re going to see this coin trade higher again.
I tweeted a week ago that the $WCT price was looking like the $LAYER one on its way up, and this is exactly what happened over the next days, $WCT went on a massive run (4x from bottom to top in a month) that culminated in a parabolic move and a double top, before completely dying off and losing 60% of its value in half a day. Remember that all prices are fake in crypto, but that coins will go to zero through very different paths.
On May 20, Cookiedotfun announced that they were launching Cookie Snaps, which is basically another version of Kaito Yaps, and made Cookie an “InfoFi project”. This gave a good long opportunity as $COOKIE started running, and had +150% gains in 5 days. The trade made sense because the $KAITO token has been strong in May (+200% bottom to top), and with a much higher FDV than $COOKIE (2bn vs $200M).
The Fifa announced a partnership with the Avalanche blockchain on May 22, we can clearly see on the chart that the news was frontran by insiders, so it did not lead to a particularly noticeable price action on $AVAX.
The two memecoins $MOODENG and $MEW both got listed on Robinhood, which lead to a +30% move on both coins, but it marked the local top for both of them too.
$VIRTUAL had a phenomenal come-back in April thanks to their Virgen points program flywheel, and the coin remained very strong in May, it even reached a new high locally at almost $2.6 near the end of May.
$MKR is up +20% in two days : the two catalysts are the fact that people can now stake $SKY tokens and be paid around 20% yield in USDS, as well as the upcoming Circle IPO at $7.2bn, which is said to be “25x oversubscribed”. Given MKR is one of the most straightforward stablecoin plays and that it benefits for buybacks, it is not surprising that it’s reacting positively on this piece of news.
$ZBCN is one of the top performers in May, it went up close to 5x in two weeks. Apparently it’s a RWA token on Solana…
$MASK is up +150% since early May, which was a week away after DWF announced a $5M investment into MASK… Another DWF special coin is $TRB, which recently had a 2x scam pump.
Pumpfun announced that they were planning to do an ICO at $4bn FDV, and raise $1bn through the ICO. Raising this much after having made $700M in revenue sounds like total grift to me. SOL and the largest Solana memecoins all dumped on the news.
$KTA is still up only, now at almost $1.2bn FDV.
Thank you for reading this article,
Cheers,
Viktor.
Ref link shill : The sniper I use to trade coins on Solana is Axiom. Very useful, it’s night and day compared to trading on Jupiter. You can access Axiom in one click via this referral link.