Narratives of the week : June 30

Sub $100k local bottom on Iran-Israel conflict, SYRUP, lack of altcoin narratives

Welcome to this weekly recap, I am Viktor and you can find me here on Twitter and here on Telegram. Enjoy your reading !

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$BTC and the market overall

The price action of $BTC in 2025 has been heavily reliant on headlines, and this has been true during the past 2 weeks again. $BTC suffered from $105k to sub $99k on June 22 during the “escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict”. On June 21, the US announced that they bombed the Iranian nuclear sites, and on June 22 the Iranian parliament voted the authorization to close the strait of Hormuz. This sparked the final move down to below $99k.

On June 23 (Monday), Iran sent some missiles against US bases too, but none of them hit and it was more to save face than anything, and a few hours later Trump announced a ceasefire between the 2 countries, which lead to a sharp move back up to $106k on $BTC. “Nothing ever happens”…

Since then, $BTC has mostly been ranging around the $107k level. Altcoins also bottomed on June 22 with BTC, both against USD and against BTC.

The S&P 500 has reached new highs again on Friday, June 27, but not $BTC, which is leading a lot of people to be “concerned” about BTC relative weakness. Personally, I think that a lot of coins are flowing from weak hands to strong hands, and we are preparing the next leg up to $130k+. ETFs and BTC treasury companies are buying coins sold probably by OG bitcoiners, and as these will have less and less coins to sell, we should initiate the next pump.

It is summer time, which is usually bearish for BTC, so this pump is not guaranteed to happen in the very short term, but I’m very confident it happens in the coming months. The bearish scenario is below, the bull scenario is ATH in a few days.

$SOL ETF

One of the only “narratives” in this current dead altcoin market is the upcoming $SOL ETF, which will probably include staking, and should be approved in the next 2 to maybe 3 months according to the ETF bros. SOLBTC is up +11% from its bottom a week ago, but overall not doing much, $SOL is trading around its $150 “equilibrium level”. $JTO and $MNDE have beens slightly showing strength since the announcements.

$SYRUP and DeFi coins

One DeFi coin with “fundamentals” has been particularly strong over the past 3 months, and that is $SYRUP (Maple Finance) which basically pumped from $100M to $600M mcap while its TVL and revenue keep growing steadily. Maple is a RWA/under-collateralized lending protocol that was already around in 2021 but suffered during the bear market and is now finally ‘so back’.

A few other coins seem to qualify for a similar run, as “decently low valuation DeFi coins with protocols still doing well”, and these are $LQTY (Liquity, the most decentralized stablecoin protocol), $EUL (Euler, they are a lending protocol that got hacked in 2023 but now their TVL is up only), $FLUID (A lending protocol + DEX with an ever-growing TVL too). LQTY and EUL have both been doing well in terms of price action lately.

Random top performers

The top-performers among large caps over the past 2 weeks are very eclectic and I don’t think there is a clear logic behind each of these pumps : $SEI, $PENGU, $MOVE, $W, $BCH.

$SEI is up almost 2x in 12 days and the main piece of news that stands out about SEI is that it has been selected by the Wyoming Stable Token Commission as a candidate blockchain for WYST. It will be a great short if it keeps pushing higher.

$MOVE has been short squeezed almost 2x after reaching a new low at $1.1bn FDV. $PENGU is up +90% in a week, now almost going for new highs (from May). It was a strong mover in late April but stalled in May when the Sol memes really squeezed.

$ARB has rallied +20% since yesterday, because Robinhood announced that they would launch their L2, and that it will be based on the Arbitrum Orbit stack.

Manipulation on Binance coins : BANANAS31

A few coins listed on Binance perps are clearly being manipulated, and one of the most blatant examples is $BANANAS31, honestly you just have to take a look at the chart to realize it. I’ve written a tweet about how to handle these coins.

Other BSC memecoins that are having “inorganic” moves are $TUT and $SIREN. TUT is up +120% in twoo weeks and could have room to pump higher (because it’s only $60M mcap with minimal drawdowns), while $SIREN has dumped -60% in a day recently.

Another “strange” Binance coin is $FUN, up 2x in a two weeks with very negative funding rate.

New coins

New coins are launched weekly, the most recent ones have been $H (Humanity Protocol, a Worldcoin-like project), $SAHARA (Sahara AI), and $NEWT (Newton Protocol). $H dumped hard (-60% in a day) before pumping +160% in two days. $RESOLV and $SPK which are both recent coins too have been making new lows lately.

On-chain

The most noticeable mover on-chain has been $USELESS, it is a “honestly useless” Fartcoin-like memecoin pushed by Bonk guy and launched on the Bonk launchpad, and it’s been moving up relentlessly from $10M to $200M mcap. In the same time, $AURA has found a support at $100M, and $JOE is ready to make a new ATH at $75M mcap, after pumping 4x in a month.

In the category of on-chain utility coins, $CLANKER performed well and is up almost 2x in a week (it’s a launchpad on Base that is listed on Coinbase and the mcap is still below $50M), and $KTA reached a local bottom at $0.4, before pumping 2x quickly, and now stabilizing around $0.7. $REI on Base remains one of the strongest AI agent coins, it’s trading at $110M and trending upwards.

Thank you for reading this article,
Cheers,
Viktor.

Ref link shill : The sniper I use to trade coins on Solana is Axiom. Very useful, it’s night and day compared to trading on Jupiter. You can access Axiom in one click via this referral link.