Narratives of the week : July 11

New $118k $BTC ATH & Bonk season

Jul 11, 2025

Welcome to this weekly recap, I am Viktor and you can find me here on Twitter and here on Telegram. Enjoy your reading !

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$BTC and the market overall

So here it is, a new $BTC breakout and a new ATH happened yesterday. During the last 2 weeks, $BTC has been ranging around $108k, but without really moving up while the SPX was making new highs. This lead a lot of people to express concerns about “billions worth of BTC bought by treasury companies but price not moving” or “bullish news but price not going up” (for example after Robinhood announced that they would be tokenizing stocks and launching an L2, on June 30).

My interpretation of the price action was that we were clearly in a situation where coins were flowing from a depleting pool of sellers to a strong base of buyers (BTC treasury companies + ETFs), and that it was only a matter of time before a new ATH. I certainly wasn’t sure that it would happen so soon, but I tried to express as much bullishness as possible on my Twitter account.

And in the end, we got the usual setup where $BTC went up in a straight line yesterday, after touching $112k first on Wednesday. $BTC went to $113.7k as a first stop, and just a few hours later it squeezed the shorts very hard to $117k, before continuing to grind up, and almost reached $119k today.

Why did we go up ? Basically because the people willing to sell at this level have now been exhausted, and the demand coming from BTC treasury companies (and ETFs) is huge AND growing. We are just at the beginning of this narrative, which will be the main theme of this BTC leg up in my opinion.

If we mirror the 3 previous BTC strong breakouts of this cycle, we should :

Not see a meaningful drawdown on BTC
See altcoins keep doing well for few weeks, as it’s “risk-on szn”

Given the usual weakness in the altcoin market, it’s hard to be confident on this, but if they have to get a period of strength, this is a good opportunity right now. On top of this, we have had strength on $ETH, with a +10% move on ETHBTC in a week despite BTC breaking out, and that is really a complete behaviour switch of ETHBTC compared to the last 2 years. $ETH is currently trading at $3000, and it looks ready to keep pushing higher, especially given the fact that there is now one “Microstrategy for ETH”, $SBET, who is buying $ETH on a weekly basis.

$USELESS and Bonk season

The main narrative we’ve had in the altcoin space in early July before this BTC breakout was the “Bonk szn”. The catalyst for this has been the impressive price action of $USELESS, which is the leading meme launched on letsbonkfun (the meme launchpad made by the Bonk team) and went from $5M to $300M mcap in a month with barely any drawdown.

Unipcs ‘Bonk guy’ has been vocally bullish about USELESS as well as the whole Bonk ecosystem, so this pump gave life to both $BONK (up +75% in ten days) and the main memes launched on the platform, such as $HOSICO ($75M MC top) or $IKUN ($30M top). $GP has also pumped hard (almost 10x), it’s a token that receives a portion of the fees generated on letsbonkfun.

This Bonk ecosystem “wave” is happening in the context of the recent announcement by Pumpfun about their public sale on several exchanges : people will be able to buy $PUMP at $4bn FDV, and the size of this “public round” is $600M. PUMP is already trading in pre-markets on different venues, at around $5.3bn FDV. This suggests to me that buying at $4bn is not an “insane opportunity”, probably not a bad deal either, but I won’t participate in the sale.

What else happened in the altcoin market ?

Many of the top gainers over one week are memecoins. $PENGU has shown substantial strength in two weeks, and is up +120%. $MOG is up +75% in three days, and $MOODENG and $PNUT usually also remain top gainers when the market gets hot. $NEIROETH has had a crazy +135% pump before giving back -25%.
A few of the coins that outperformed on yesterday/today’s move are CEX coins that have been down only since their TGE, and now trading at very small valuations : $OMNI, $REZ, $ALT, $SAGA for example. $INIT had a strong pump too, but this one is more recent.
$BANANAS31 is a BSC memecoin that nobody trades organically but that someone decided to crime up, and managed to do it successfully until its final squeeze yesterday. From the beginning of the move 20 days ago, to the top yesterday, this coin went from $50M mcap to to almost $800M, and is now already back down to $300M. Absolute scam, Binance is extremely predatory by allowing this on their platform.

$H (Humanity Protocol, a similar project as Worldcoin) is a new coin that got listed in late June, and immediately went down -60% after TGE, but then stabilized at $200M, before pumping hard for several days, and trapping a lot of shorts in the process. That’s the risk when you short very low float coins… In less than a week, it went up 5x, and has been trading at around -5000% funding rate for at least 3 days. And then all of a sudden on July 5, the polarity reversed, and it became extremely weak, and went down -56% from the top by slowly bleeding down.
Another coin that is clearly benefitting from the very low float dynamic is $M (Memecore), a new coin listed on Binance a week ago, which is currently up almost 5x in three days, and does have a theoretical $8bn FDV but the float is much much smaller.
$HYPER (Hyperlane) is a coin that has gone completely crazy since yesterday, after getting listed on Upbit. Upbit listings often lead to insanity, and now this coin is up 6x in a day, and is trading at 4x the volume of BTC on Upbit. Apparently, some Koreans think that it’s Hyperliquid, so that might explain the move… $RESOLV also got listed on Upbit today and pumped +60% in one hour.
$SYRUP has been one of the top performers in the market in May and June, but it is now quite weak since its top at $0.66. But $EUL, another similar coin (it’s the token of the lending protocol Euler that has come back strong since its hack) is having a great time, as it is up more than 2x in 2 weeks.
Some noticeable movers on-chain : $NOBODY (Nobody Sausage, a meme that went from $10M to $40M in two weeks), and $IMF (the token of a ETH-memecoin dedicated lending platform, which is up 50x in a month).

Thank you for reading this article,
Cheers,
Viktor.

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